I was at a party the other day with two die-hard Democrats, who told me with great confidence that Barack Obama would be reelected.

To me, that’s wishful thinking.

Just look at Obama’s poll numbers. In the latest Gallup poll, he has a miserable 39 percent approval rating, with 54 percent disapproving. And another recent poll showed that 73 percent believe the country’s on the wrong track.

It’s going to be difficult for him to win with these numbers, especially with the economy as weak as it is, and with his hands tied by the Republicans.

Actually, he’s managed to tie his own hands behind his back, which is not easy to do. He signed on to the debt ceiling agreement. And he’s still favoring a “grand bargain” of trillions of dollars of cuts, including in Medicare and Social Security, cuts that would not only further dampen the economy but that would also betray core Democratic programs.

Since he lowballed the initial stimulus, he hasn’t forcefully presented new programs to put people to work or to keep them in their homes. He’s shown no urgency, up to now, to deal with these central problems. Instead, he foolishly focused on the debt and the deficit.

Independents will flee him in 2012 with the economy in the tank. Republicans hate him, some for thinly veiled racists reasons.

And the groups that were so enthusiastic about him last time—progressives, young people, blacks, labor, and Latinos—haven’t been exactly thrilled with his performance, and aren’t likely to beat the bushes for him this time around.

So it’s hard to see how he’ll win, unless the Republicans put up Bachmann.

There’s not much out there that could turn things around for Obama.

He’s already killed bin Laden.

What’s he going to do? Dive to the bottom of the Pacific and kill him again?

If you liked this story by Matthew Rothschild, the editor of The Progressive magazine, check out his story "Obama Just Got Run Over."

Follow Matthew Rothschild @mattrothschild on Twitter