Pakistan Needs Development, Not Drones

By Amitabh Pal, May 15, 2009

Too bad it had to come to this in Pakistan. More than a million civilians displaced, in the largest internal refugee crisis since the country’s founding. Hundreds killed in the fighting, including a yet unknown number of civilians. A breathtakingly beautiful area, the Swat Valley, in tatters.

But was this the only way to stop the Taliban from taking control of the entire country? A significant portion of the Pakistani elite—and the United States—certainly thinks so. And the Taliban’s advance, till they were literally 60 miles from Islamabad, the nation’s capital, was quite unsettling. Residents of the capital were so stressed that schools started barricading themselves, and all of them closed for a day. The Indian Hindu newspaper reports on a prominent architect in Islamabad who bought a rifle and a silencer in anticipation of a Taliban takeover.

“If [the Taliban] walk into this city, at least I will be able to take out some of them before they get me and my family,” he told the paper’s Pakistan correspondent.

In retrospect, the Pakistani government’s deal with the Taliban that effectively ceded control of the Swat region—with the accompanied imposition of extremely harsh Islamic law—seems to have been a big mistake. Rather than disarming the Taliban, it only emboldened them and made them attempt to expand their area of influence.

But at the time when the provincial government of the region (led, incredibly, by the family of the remarkable pacifist Abdul Ghaffar Khan) signed the agreement, it seemed a way of preventing a bloodbath.

“The ANP [the ruling Awami National Party] may have calculated that in the long run it could keep its nationalist credentials alive by working toward a ceasefire and bringing peace to the region, albeit not entirely on its own terms, ensuring that no more Pashtun blood would be spilled,” writes Pakistani Professor Kamran Asdar Ali for Middle East Report Online.

The Pakistani army was ambivalent about taking on the Taliban because it did not want to open up a third front, in addition to its borders with India and Afghanistan. In the mindset of the Pakistani army, India, with its manifold population and its principal role in the secession of the country’s eastern wing as Bangladesh, is still seen as the major threat to a country that came into existence by splitting off from India in 1947.

“The tribal areas are seen by the West as the ‘greatest threat’ to its security, as well as being the main cause of Western frustration with Pakistan,” writes Graham Usher in the London Review of Books. “The reason is simple: the Pakistan army’s counterinsurgency strategy is not principally directed at the Taliban or even Al Qaeda: The main enemy is India.”

Finally, the army was prodded into action partly due to a public outcry caused by the Internet distribution of a video showing a young woman being flogged by the Taliban in the Swat Valley due to alleged immoral behavior. (An official probe team conveniently dismissed the video as fake).

The Obama Administration, with the carrot of a multibillion dollar aid package dangling before the Pakistanis, played a strong role in pushing the Pakistani government to act, too. Top administration officials expressed repeated concern, and President Obama himself jointly hosted Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari and Afghan President Hamid Karzai in an attempt to get them to coordinate a joint strategy to fight Islamic fundamentalism.

At the same time, though, the United States has helped undermine the popularity of the Pakistani government because of the civilian casualties incurred by its repeated use of drones to target Al Qaeda leaders holed up in the frontier region.

“Of the 60 cross-border predator strikes carried out by the Afghanistan-based American drones in Pakistan between January 14, 2006 and April 8, 2009, only 10 were able to hit their actual targets, killing 14 wanted Al Qaeda leaders, besides perishing 687 innocent Pakistani civilians,” reports the Pakistani newspaper The News.

David Kilcullen, a top counterinsurgency expert who fashioned strategy in Iraq, recently told Congress that the drones were doing more harm than good.

“The drone strikes are highly unpopular,” he said in his testimony. “They are deeply aggravating to the population. And they've given rise to a feeling of anger that coalesces the population around the extremists and leads to spikes of extremism. ... The current path that we are on is leading us to loss of Pakistani government control over its own population.”

A better way to counter the extremists would be to help Pakistani citizens attain a decent quality of life, as the Obama Administration professes to be committed to doing. As Professor Ali points out, much of the turmoil in the Swat Valley can be traced back to the underdevelopment of the area.

“The patchwork remedies for periodic economic crisis in Swat have failed to date to provide opportunities for upward mobility to the region’s poor,” writes Ali. “It would be a fallacy to say that all present-day militancy in the region stems from class anger. It is no coincidence, however, that the Taliban has targeted large landholders, levying taxes on gemstone mines and forcing lumber contractors to offer job opportunities to locals.”

A little development would go a long way toward getting rid of the attraction of Islamic fundamentalism in the region.

Comments

There are some aspects on this article collected from
various news outlets that belong only on the U.S. propaganda about Pakistan page. Example: The U.S. yapping that the Taliban forces (small bands of scruffy men with rifles) were 60 miles from Islamabad, and there was a threat that may overrun the 700.000 Pakistan army, take Pakistan's nuclear bombs, and ...... Well, good fodder for comedians, but definitely a phony Hillary Clinton claim.

The truth? The Pakistan Pashtun tribes have helped their Afghan Pashtun brethren to frustrate the U.S. occupation of Afghanistan for 8 years! And the U.S. wants to cut off the vein of help from Pakistan to subdue the Afghans. That is why it has been paying the Pakistani army about $20 to 80 millions a month [news are murky on exact figure] for 8 years for what is called "reimbursement for Taliban counter-insurgency operations." But the U.S. has come to realize that the money was wasted by the Pakistani army on other projects - or lining a few pockets as the Pakistan Dawn newspaper reported- while the Taliban influence expanded due to raised hostility of the population against the government for its acquiescence to the killing of civilians by U.S. Predator drones.

The U.S. had the option to stop the Predator killings, but Obama's National Security Advisor, General Jones, said: "The U.S. cannot fight a war with one of its hand tied behind its back." So, the U.S. decided to force Pakistan to eliminate the Taliban, or lose its monthly allotment for "counterinsurgency reimbursement" mentioned above, and tell Pakistan's government that the U.S. $7.5 billion aid package will be provided "after proof that the Taliban supposed threat to itself [if anybody can believe that] was eliminated." And at a time that the U.S. fight its wars mostly with contractors and sub-contractors, the
Pakistani army attack on Taliban was just another sub-contracted operation by the U.S. against the Taliban for the aforementioned aid packages.

The Chicago Tribune's corresponded Mark Magnier reported from Pakistan on May 11, 2009 that the name "Taliban doesn't mean anything; any religious person can be a Taliban." But the armed Taliban are just poor, uneducated and unemployed people who serve under local leaders where government presence or courts are virtually non-existent. They hunt down thieves, bandits, enforce custom codes of indecency, ban on alcohol, etc. They are not a unified strong insurgency marching to overthrow the government -as the U.S. portrays them to provide cover for the Pakistan government's attack on them.

The essence of this article "Pakistan needs development aid - not Predator strikes" is excellent. But Obama needs a win in Afghanistan and Pakistan to assure his re-election at 2012. Gerald Ford lost the elections to Jimmy Carter in 1976 by a naive opinion on the Soviet occupation of Eastern Europe. Afghanistan and Pakistan will certainly weigh more on Obama in 2012. And I feel the way Obama's policy is evolving in Central Asia, it will be a calamity for him - not a badge of honor on his first term record. Nikos Retsos, retired professor

Submitted by Nikos Retsos on Fri, 05/15/2009 - 9:34am.

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