John McCain lost because of things that were out of his control—and in his control.

Certainly he couldn’t help the fact that Bush is so unpopular. Hell, you can skate on Bush’s popularity it’s been below freezing for so long.

But McCain didn’t need to go kiss Bush’s ring after he had sewed up the nomination. And he didn’t need to vote with Bush 90 percent of the time, either.

Certainly, it wasn’t McCain’s fault that the economy tanked and the banks went bust.

But he didn’t help himself any by confessing during the primaries that economics wasn’t his strong suit. Nor did he do himself a favor by calling for a 9/11-style commission to look into it, which would have taken forever. Nor by saying “the fundamentals of the economy are strong.” Nor by boasting of being a deregulator. Nor by suspending his campaign and presuming that he can waltz into Washington and play the hero on the bailout bill.

McCain also lost because of his crusty, crotchety personality. Obama grows on people. McCain grates on people. And in the debates, this was a killer for him. He displayed the full gamut of emotions from contemptuous to cussed. His dismissive “that one” will go down in the history of debate blunders.

McCain showed a softer, warmer side only rarely—at the Al Smith banquet and in his concession speech. If he had displayed more of that, he’d have done better.

And McCain lost because of his muddled message.

First, he was the candidate of experience. Then he threw that into the garbage disposal when he chose Sarah Palin, only to reach down and grab it again toward the end, tarnished as it was.

For a while there, he played the Bill Ayers card, but to no good effect.

Throughout, he campaigned as the man who would do away with “earmarks,” an issue that doesn’t make any top ten list of citizen concerns.

His rhetoric was often puzzling, as in: “We never hide from history. We make history.” That’s a line he used 100 times, including in his acceptance speech and his concession speech. But what the hell does it mean?

And he also played the Bob Dole card, saying he should be president because he was a war hero. “I’ve fought for this country since I was 17, and I have the scars to prove it,” he said ad nauseam. But that’s not why people vote for a presidential candidate. They’re looking for someone to fix their problems.

At a loss, McCain reverted to the old Republican songbook of cutting taxes and cutting government spending. But Obama was able to effectively and accurately argue that his own tax cuts would help all but the richest Americans more than McCain’s would. And cutting government spending during a recession isn’t smart, and it’s an incoherent program, especially after McCain signed off on the $700 billion bailout.

And, of course, there’s the Sarah Palin choice, which ultimately cost McCain more than he gained from it. A charter member of the Flat Earth Society, she believes in Creationism, she doubts the man-made contributions to global warming, and she even opposes funding for science experiments with fruit flies. On top of all that, she was woefully unprepared and unqualified for the job, and she flunked her crash-course tutorials. Worst of all, she played with a very dangerous fire by whipping her crowds into a lather. She never once rebuked those who shouted out “Kill him!” or “Traitor” or “Off with his head.” While at first, she came off to some as refreshing, by the end, she was just inept and creepy.

Finally, McCain lost because Obama ran such a great campaign. His 50-state strategy, his Internet organizing and fundraising, his door-to-door apparatus, his message of hope and change all were impressive. But most impressive of all was the candidate himself. He was disciplined. He was calm and steady. He was reassuring. He was unflappable. Being on an open mic for 21 straight months, he made only a couple mistakes: his San Francisco comment about working folks “clinging to their guns and religion,” his remark to Hillary Clinton in one of the primary debates that “you’re nice enough,” and maybe his “share the wealth” comment, though that didn’t seem to cost him much.

Obama does have Hillary to thank for teaching him how to debate. She and John Edwards beat him in 15 of the first 18 debates. And he also has Hillary to thank for lancing the Reverend Wright boil early on. But Obama rescued himself from Wright by giving that pivotal speech on race in America back in Philly.

Like Hillary, McCain underestimated Obama. They both seemed astonished and annoyed that this whippersnapper was even competing against them. They both foolishly mocked his rhetorical skills. And they acted like they “deserved” the Presidency.

No one deserves it. You got to earn it.

And Obama earned it.