I never thought an Obama victory was a great bet, much less a sure thing.

And after the latest polls, it’s looking more remote.

The Reuters/Zogby poll released this weak has McCain besting Obama 46-41 among likely voters. Last month, Obama led by seven points. Now he’s lost support from almost every demographic, including young people.

The New York Times/CBS News poll still has Obama in the lead among registered voters, but only slightly, 45-42, down from previous polls.

What’s going on here?

Well, first off, the McCain attack machine is paying dividends. By mocking Obama’s popularity and labeling him an elitist, McCain’s hatchet men were essentially calling Obama uppity.

That, and the accusation that Obama was playing the race card, sent all the necessary signals to the subconscious racists out there to stay white.

The race issue is huge.

I’ve met elderly white Americans who have always voted Democratic but who won’t vote for Obama this time. When I asked why not, the first response that jumped out of one woman’s mouth was, “Oh, it’s not because of race.” But then she couldn’t give a good explanation for her unease with him.

Another white voter in Wisconsin was quoted in the local press expressing his discomfort with a “colored President.” He said his white friends were concerend that Obama would tilt the government “toward the colored people and we’ll be a minority.”

The New York Times on Thursday did a long piece on Pennsylvania and the attitudes of voters there. One middle-aged white man echoed rumors he heard that Obama didn’t shake hands with the troops, and “he heard that young blacks were registering to vote just for Mr. Obama, and said that annoys him, too.”

Another white voter said his dad, who worked in the steel mills, was for Edwards but is now for McCain. The son said, “Without realizing it, he’s wrapped up in white-identity politics.”

The Times noted that in the primary in Pennsylvania, 20 percent of the voters said race was a factor, according to one poll.

Two other things hurt Obama.

First, he let McCain appear the champion of the average American on the issue of offshore drilling. Rather than stick to a principled position and explain why it won’t help the consumer even as it destroys the environment, Obama vacillated. That won’t work. He should have stressed the need to get off oil, not acquiesced in the futile quest to drill more. Instead, he looked wishy-washy.

Second, whoever had the brilliant idea of sending Obama off on a Hawaiian vacation ought to find a new line of work. While Russia attacked Georgia, Obama was on a surfboard, no less.

Didn’t John Kerry teach the Dems anything?

Like Kerry, Obama hasn’t fought back fast enough or hard enough. He doesn’t seem to relish the parry and the thrust, and if he can’t throw a knife, he needs to find someone who can toss one—and twist one.

That’s what running mates are for. Or MoveOn.org, for that matter, which wasted a commercial on criticizing McCain for supporting offshore drilling just after Obama agreed to it. Oops!

McCain is vulnerable on many fronts: his belligerence, his confessed ignorance of economics, his bias in favor of the rich (you know, those who make $5 million a year or more), and his backing of almost all of the Bush agenda, to name a few.

Obama needs to go on the attack.

It’s not too late for him yet, but it’s getting there.

This is not how he wanted to enter his convention.